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Monitoring and prediction in early warning systems for rapid mass movements

机译:预警系统中的监视和预测,以快速进行群众运动

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摘要

Rapid mass movements (RMM) pose a substantial risk to people and infrastructure. Reliable and cost-efficient measures have to be taken to reduce this risk. One of these measures includes establishing and advancing the state of practice in the application of early warning systems (EWSs). EWSs have been developed during the past decades and are rapidly increasing. In this paper, we focus on the technical part of EWSs, i.e., the prediction and timely recognition of imminent hazards, as well as on monitoring slopes at risk and released mass movements. Recent innovations in assessing spatial precipitation, monitoring and precursors of the triggering and deformation of RMM offer new opportunities for next-generation EWSs. However, technical advancement can only be transferred into more reliable, operational EWSs with an adequate well-instructed dedicated staff. To this end, an intense dialog between scientists, engineers and those in charge of warning, as well as further experience with new comprehensive prototype systems jointly operated by scientists and practitioners, will be essential.
机译:快速群众运动(RMM)对人员和基础设施构成重大风险。必须采取可靠且具有成本效益的措施来减少这种风险。这些措施之一包括在预警系统(EWS)的应用中建立和改进实践状态。 EWS在过去的几十年中得到了发展,并且正在迅速增长。在本文中,我们专注于预警系统的技术部分,即对即将发生的危险的预测和及时识别,以及对处于危险中的斜坡和释放的群众运动的监控。 RMM的空间降水,监测以及触发和变形前兆的最新创新为下一代EWS提供了新的机遇。但是,技术进步只能转移到拥有足够训练有素的专门人员的更可靠,可操作的EWS中。为此,至关重要的是科学家,工程师和负责预警的人员之间的对话,以及由科学家和从业人员共同操作的新型综合原型系统的进一步经验。

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